Exceptionally low rainfall, soil moisture and river flows in May mean the UK may be on course for a significant drought this summer, just weeks after some record high flows and widespread flooding, according to experts at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH).
While there has been some heavy rainfall in early June, and more is expected over the next few days, scientists warn a sustained period of wet weather will be needed to reverse the very dry conditions in some parts of the UK – particularly as high temperatures are forecast for the summer.
Analysis of current and historical data by UKCEH has shown that the exceptionally dry spring (March to May) has sent river flow and soil moisture levels plummeting over the last two months. In some cases this has been to record low levels for the time of year, including some catchments that saw flooding in February such as the Severn and Wye. Similarly, despite the wet winter, reservoir stocks fell substantially during May and by the end of the month were as much as 15-20 per cent lower than expected for the time of year.
This means the UK is entering summer with May river flows comparable to some major past drought episodes – lower than in major events like 1984 and 1976, for example, in some western rivers.
This interpretation comes from UKCEH’s expert analysis of river flow data, compiled and held by the research centre, as well as its near-real time soil moisture monitoring system, and the forward look from hydrological models and assessments carried out at UKCEH. Results of these are reported in the monthly COSMOS-UK soil moisture report, Hydrological Summary, and Hydrological Outlook published this week, and near real-time data updates can be seen via the UK Water Resources Portal.
Source: UK CEH